This week we look at Italian-Thai Development's (ITD, Not Covered) ongoing efforts to push ahead with the Dawei project. We also put forward the view that a cabinet reshuffle could be delayed to July, notwithstanding the end of the five-year ban on the former executives of the Thai Rak Thai party at the end of May. And the latest news is Virabongsa Ramangkura, a veteran economist, has been reportedly selected to become the next chairman of the Bank of Thailand.
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) revised its forecast for GDP growth this year up from 5.7% to 6.0% largely because the Thai economy has recovered faster than expected from last year's floods. The BoT believes the economy will return to normal production by the end of 2Q or early 3Q. It also sees exports accelerating further during 2H 2012 and gaining momentum into 2013. This is based on the assumption that global risks have abated and that global growth has stabilized.
08/05/2012
[ECON]Thailand Macro Watch: Thailand: local insights Thailand: local insights
This week, we highlight the following trends: (1) foreign holdings of Thai bonds are surging again; (2) electrical and electronics producers are hoping that operations can reach 80% of capacity, but this is becoming a challenge; (3) local businessmen appear concerned about the ramifications of deficiencies in Thailand’s anti-money laundering laws and lack of terrorist financing laws, and are pressuring the government to move quickly on reform; and (4) five industrial estates in Rayong province could face a water shortage if rainfall does not appear by July, potentially triggering a replay of the 2005 drought crisis. Also, we provide some thoughtful analysis on the state of Thai politics.
02/05/2012
[ECON]Thailand Macro Watch: Thailand: Local insight Thailand: Local insight
This week we look at price pressures in Thailand which are likely to rise from May onwards. We expect these pressures will eventually elicit warnings from the BoT but believe that monetary policy would likely err on the dovish side. We have also looked at selected SMEs which were able to adjust to rising costs by shifting more to the domestic market where they have better pricing power.
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